The Late-May Launchpad
Nasdaq 100 long from May 21 close into next February — 20 of 25 winners, a perfect 10 of 10 in the last decade, +13.8% median.
Welcome to the first post. The plan is one entry each week — a featured seasonal signal that fires soon, the week's daily calendar so you can see exactly when, and the full multi-decade track record so you can decide for yourself. Nothing else.
This week's signal goes live Thursday. An NDX long from May 21 → Feb 18 (next year) — a 9-month hold crossing the entire "worst six months" — has produced a +13.8% median with a perfect 10-of-10 last decade. This is the strongest late-season equity entry in the calendar and the one that most directly refutes the "Sell in May" heuristic for tech-heavy names.
The best three late-May entry dates — May 14, May 21, and May 28 — all hit 10/10 in the last decade. For traders who missed the February or March launchpads, the late-May entry is the final high-conviction equity long before summer. Trade via NDX futures or QQQ. Hold through year-end; don't trim for summer volatility.
The Late-May Launchpad doesn't fire alone. Two related signals enter on the same day with the same exit, both with strong track records of their own. The daily calendar below shows all three.
The week ahead
| Day | Notes | Trades active |
|---|---|---|
| MonMay 18 | Pre-Memorial Day week. Volumes light into Thursday's entry. | |
| TueMay 19 | "Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing." — Warren Buffett | |
| WedMay 20 | ||
| ThuMay 21 | The Late-May Launchpad fires at the close. See above for the full setup. |
INNDX+14%
IN1kGrowth+15%
INSPX+11%
All three exit Feb 18, 2027
|
| FriMay 22 | ||
| SatMay 23 | — | |
| SunMay 24 | Memorial Day weekend. Markets closed Monday. |
Three signals fire together on Thursday: the featured NDX long (the Launchpad itself) plus a 1kGrowth long and an SPX long, all with the same Feb 18 exit. Median per-trade returns shown.
Full history — 25 years (NDX May 21 → Feb 18)
| Year | Return | Rank | Year | Ranked |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | −30.0% | 1 | 2020 | +44.4% |
| 2002 | −19.2% | 2 | 2003 | +35.4% |
| 2003 | +35.4% | 3 | 2009 | +33.3% |
| 2004 | +8.8% | 4 | 2010 | +31.3% |
| 2005 | +9.6% | 5 | 2019 | +29.2% |
| 2006 | +13.8% | 6 | 2023 | +28.1% |
| 2007 | −6.8% | 7 | 2016 | +22.0% |
| 2008 | −40.7% | 8 | 2013 | +21.6% |
| 2009 | +33.3% | 9 | 2014 | +20.8% |
| 2010 | +31.3% | 10 | 2017 | +19.8% |
| 2011 | +9.9% | 11 | 2024 | +18.4% |
| 2012 | +11.5% | 12 | 2025 | +18.1% |
| 2013 | +21.6% | 13 | 2006 | +13.8% |
| 2014 | +20.8% | 14 | 2012 | +11.5% |
| 2015 | −8.3% | 15 | 2011 | +9.9% |
| 2016 | +22.0% | 16 | 2005 | +9.6% |
| 2017 | +19.8% | 17 | 2004 | +8.8% |
| 2018 | +2.2% | 18 | 2021 | +4.5% |
| 2019 | +29.2% | 19 | 2022 | +4.4% |
| 2020 | +44.4% | 20 | 2018 | +2.2% |
| 2021 | +4.5% | 21 | 2007 | −6.8% |
| 2022 | +4.4% | 22 | 2015 | −8.3% |
| 2023 | +28.1% | 23 | 2002 | −19.2% |
| 2024 | +18.4% | 24 | 2001 | −30.0% |
| 2025 | +18.1% | 25 | 2008 | −40.7% |
Read: Left = chronological. Right = ranked. NDX Composite, May 21 close through Feb 18 next year. Data: last 25 years.